August 09 2020 06:48:36
News Photos Forum Search Contact History Linkbox Calendar
 
Forum Threads
Newest Threads
Fantasy Premier League
Football's gnash of ...
Great live performances
Craziest music video!
Covers that Rock
Blast from the past
MMA Stuff
Is climate change re...
UFO incidents
Thomsen Climate Change
Linkbox
Newest Links
The story behind the... (0)
The Dunning-Kruger E... (0)
Machine Learning: Th... (0)
Dave Chappelle and O... (0)
Chappelle’s Show -... (0)
'Wind of Change': Th... (0)
Where Boston Stereot... (0)
Brigadier Roderick M... (0)
Copenhagen bridge st... (3)
Strange Days - The B... (1)
Random Photo


CPH Party

Calendar
Member Poll
How do you like the new banner I made for Copenhell?

Wait, that was for Copenhell? I like it, let's keep it!

What's Copenhell? Let's go back to the old one!

Whatever, I want a completely new one!

You must login to vote.
Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?
News by Norlander
Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?

Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.

But it depends on a range of factors: your age, sex and general health and the health system you are in. How hard is it to work out the death rate? It is PhD-level hard. Even counting cases is tricky. Most cases of most viruses will go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms.

The different death rates we are seeing reported around the world are unlikely to be due to different versions of the virus.According to research by Imperial College, it's because different countries are better or worse at spotting the milder, harder to count cases. So under-reporting cases makes it easy to overestimate the death rate. But you can also get it wrong in the other direction. It takes time before an infection results in recovery or death.

If you include all cases that haven't yet had a chance to run their course, you will underestimate the death rate because you are missing the cases that will end in death later. Scientists combine individual pieces of evidence about each of these questions to build a picture of the death rate.

For example, they estimate the proportion of cases with mild symptoms from small, defined groups of people who are monitored very tightly, like people on repatriated flights. But slightly different answers from those pieces of evidence will add up to big changes in the overall picture.

If you just use data from Hubei, where the death rate has been much higher than elsewhere in China, then the overall death rate will look much worse. So scientists give a range as well as a best current estimate. But even that doesn't tell the full story because there is no single death rate.

What's the risk for people like me?

Some types of people are more likely to die if they contract coronavirus: the elderly, the unwell and, maybe, men. In the first big analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death rate was ten times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.

The death rates were lowest for the under 30s - there were eight deaths in 4,500 cases. And deaths were at least five times more common among people with diabetes, high blood pressure or heart or breathing problems. There was even a slightly higher number of deaths among men compared to women. All of these factors interact with each other and we don't yet have a complete picture of the risk for every type of person in every location.

What's the risk for people where I live?

A group of 80-year-old men in China could have very different risks to men of the same age in Europe or Africa. Your prognosis also depends on the treatment you get. In turn, that depends on what is available and the stage of the epidemic. If the epidemic takes off, then healthcare systems could get swamped with cases - there are only so many intensive care units or ventilators available in any given area.

Is it more dangerous than flu?

We can't compare mortality rates because many people with mild flu symptoms choose never to visit a doctor. So we don't know how many cases there are of flu, or any new virus every year. But flu continues to kill people in the UK, as it does every winter. As the data evolves, scientists will develop a clearer picture of who would be most at risk should a coronavirus outbreak arrive in the UK.

The basic advice from the WHO is that you can protect yourself from all respiratory viruses by washing your hands, avoiding people who are coughing and sneezing and trying not to touch your eyes, nose and mouth.

Full article from the BBC here
Comments
OKJones on March 10 2020 23:41:46
Norlander on March 11 2020 17:58:13
Great interview
Grizlas on March 11 2020 20:13:54
indeed
Norlander on March 17 2020 22:19:03
Siti og hyggi eftir Diamond Princess tølinum hjá WHO, tað er undir "landinum" International Conveyance. Hettar er tann einasti "befolkningurin", ið bleiv 100% testadur, so har eru eingi skuggatøl. Tí er tað eitt gott dømi at hyggja eftir. Øll umbord vóru í tættari kontakt í yvir 6 vikur, so smittan kom rundt umkring.

4061 umborð, 705 positiv (392 asymptomatisk) og 7 deyð. So risiko fyri deyðan er har: 2 promille af samlaða befolkninginum, 1% av øllum smittaðum, og umleið 2,3% av øllum, ið hava symtomir.

Set til Føroyar er tað so 8700 positiv, harav 4900 uttan nøkur symtom whatsoever, og umleið 100 deyð! Hettar - at tað bert verður kanna um ein longu hevur symtomir - gerð, at ein sera stórur partur av teimum í vera positivt testa doyggja tíverri (2,3%), um tað annars fyljir gongdini á Diamond Princess,

Gestirnir umborð vóru nokk eldri enn miðal, men crew má roknast at vera yngri. Ikki funni eina aldursfordeiling enn.
OKJones on March 18 2020 14:55:39
Rættiliga áhugavert.
Grizlas on March 18 2020 22:27:33
So er so spurningurin, um spreiðingin av corona umborð á einum cruise skipi kann samanberast við spreiðingina í føroyum, soleiðis at vit fáa uml. 17% smittaði í FO. Um 1% heldur, so fara nógvir føroyingar allarhelst at doyggja av hesum, uttan so at føroyingar onkusvegna eru meira resistentir ímóti influenza, sum onkur vildi vera við, ella um onkur heilvágur/koppseting fæst í næstum.
Norlander on March 18 2020 22:32:55
Kanska Føroyingar eru meira resistentir. Har er okkurt heilt undarligt við tølinum fra Italia, mest tí tey steggaðu at testa og fingu asymtomatisk smittu allastandi.
Norlander on April 07 2020 14:50:27
Islandske test: Børn smitter langt mindre end voksne

»Data fra vores test og test som er gennemført på sygehuse, viser, at børn kun har en fjerdedels (25 procent, red.) risiko for at blive smittet. Det betyder, at det i gennemsnitsnit er 25 procent risiko for at barn spreder viruset sammenlignet med voksne. Det er vigtig information, når man gennemfører beslutninger om skoler,« siger Kári Stefánsson


Forskel i receptorer hos børn og voksne

Ingeniøren har tidligere omtalt, at en årsag til forskellen i smitsomhed og sygdomsbillede mellem voksne og børn kan ligge i et specielt enzym kaldet Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, eller bare ACE2. Den sidder som en receptor på overfladen af vores celler og fungerer som et slags nøglehul både for den corona-virus, der giver covid-19, og den der giver sars.

Den slags receptorer har børn flere af end voksne, men måske ser de lidt anderledes ud i børns lunger end hos voksne. Det har Calum Semple, der er professor i børnesundhed og epidemiologi ved Liverpool University, udtalt til Financial Times.

Han mener, at ACE2-receptorer i børns lunger simpelthen ikke giver virus særligt god adgang til cellerne, fordi de fortsætter med at udvikle sig indtil teenageårene og derfor muligvis er opbygget en anelse anderledes. Der kan ligefrem være forskel på ACE2-receptorerne i den øvre og nedre del af børns luftveje.

I Danmark er det kun meget få børn, der er testet. SSI offentliggjorde i går tal, der viser, at 1924 børn op til ni år er testet for corona, heraf 1,8 procent med en Covid-19-positiv diagnose, mod 9,9 procent for befolkningen som helhed. Altså en indikation - omend på et meget lille grundlag - fra Danmark, der også viser, at børn kan have sværere ved at blive smittet med coronavirus.

På Island er universiteter og videregående uddannelser lige som i Danmark lukket, og det er forbudt at forsamles mere end 20 personer, mod 10 i Dammark.

Til gengæld er skolerne i Island åbne for de mindste klasser lige som børnehaver, men de er dog underlagt strenge restriktioner hvad angår klassestørrelser og plads mellem eleverne.


Link til article á Ingeniøren
Post Comment
Please Login to Post a Comment.
Ratings
Rating is available to Members only.

Please login or register to vote.

No Ratings have been Posted.
Login
Username

Password



Forgotten your password?
Request a new one here.
Last Seen Users
Torellion05:34:35
Norlander13:02:46
Vuzman 2 days
fjallsbak 5 days
OKJones 1 week
Grizlas 2 weeks
Laluu 2 weeks
Boddin 6 weeks
ebbi 9 weeks
Vester 9 weeks
Obituaries
You must login to post a message.

Grizlas
21/03/2020 11:37
And somewhere in the darkness The gambler he broke even And in his final words I found an ace that I could keep RIP Kenny Rogers

Norlander
03/03/2020 03:58
Suðuroy tú mundi doyð!

Vester
22/11/2019 02:00
allir burdi fari hugt eftir gomlum myndum og uploada nøkur fleiri albums her inni <3 smiley (eg skal eisini fara at hyggja hvat man hevur) smiley

Vuzman
06/09/2019 21:20
I guess no one has died since then? ¯\_(?)_/¯

Boddin
04/09/2019 12:59
Last login "RIP Rutger Hauer" and like that he was gone.

Torellion
03/09/2019 17:18
Wut?

Boddin
03/09/2019 16:27
RIP Jogvanth or so it seems.

Jogvanth
24/07/2019 21:12
RIP Rutger Hauer

OKJones
08/07/2019 17:12
Tað er mánadagur smiley

Vester
08/07/2019 14:34
"waits for that poke" ;P hrmpf smiley

Shoutbox Archive