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Grizlas
Is climate change real - Thomsen

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General

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Location: Denmark
Joined: 08.06.06
Posted on 28-12-2018 03:57
We had a long discussion about Climate Change at my party yesterday. Thomsen was basically alone in his opinion, that climate change is "bullshit" as he called it.

I didn't want to dive into my phone at the party, but here I present my counter arguments to his arguments, as I remember them:

1. Humans contribute very little to the carbon cycle.
"Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2." link

2. Co2 concentration in the atmosphere lags behind temperature.
"While the orbital cycles triggered the initial warming, overall, more than 90% of the glacial-interglacial warming occured after that atmospheric CO2 increase." link

3. The Solar Cycle is the cause behind climate change
"Claims that solar cycle length prove the sun is causing global warming are based on a single paper published nearly 20 years ago. Subsequent research, including a paper by a co-author of the original 1991 paper, finds the opposite conclusion. Solar cycle length as a proxy for solar activity tells us the sun has had very little contribution to global warming since 1975. In fact, direct measurements of solar activity indicate the sun has had a slight cooling effect on climate in recent decades while global temperatures have been rising." link

4. It was way warmer in the past 10.000 years, so a hotter temperature is actually normal.
"Whether temperatures have been warmer or colder in the past is largely irrelevant to the impacts of the ongoing warming. If you don’t care about humans and the other species here, global warming may not be all that important; nature has caused warmer and colder times in the past, and life survived. But, those warmer and colder times did not come when there were almost seven billion people living as we do. The best science says that if our warming becomes large, its influences on us will be primarily negative, and the temperature of the Holocene or the Cretaceous has no bearing on that. Furthermore, the existence of warmer and colder times in the past does not remove our fingerprints from the current warming, any more than the existence of natural fires would remove an arsonist’s fingerprints from a can of flammable liquid. If anything, nature has been pushing to cool the climate over the last few decades, but warming has occurred." link

5. Climate Change scientists are only publishing pro-climate change papers, because they seek to further their own careers and to get funding.
I couldn't find any direct evidence of this, but found several incidents where scientists have been found not guilty of such claims. Some links: Galileo comparison, Pal review, Peer review process currupt

6. Electric cars, save the most expensive ones (tesla), need to recharge after thn-vágar-thn trip.
The round trip is 94 km. and current affordable electric car models list a range of around 200 km. Yet third party tests show, that effective real world range may be as low as half of the listed range. So seems recharging would be necessary after a trip to the airport!
7. We don't have enough lihium to produce electric car batteries for all existing cars.
"Using the 0.15 kg of lithium per kwh, and assuming that cars all have 40 kwh batteries and that there are 100 million of them sold per year at some point in the future (vs. 80m in 2010), that's 100 * 40 * 0.15 * 10^6 kg = 0.6 million tonnes, which is well above current production. To outfit 1 billion cars, it'd be 6 million tonnes. This is below the current estimate for the total reserves and the resource base, both of which are growing. It also neglects potential improvements in lithium usage per kwh."link

8. Mining all that lihium and other minerals for batteries, will cause massive destruction of the environment
This is a fairly hard question to answer. There are definitely problems with battery manufacturing. Besides lithium, there are several other rare earth minerals that might become bottlenecks if all of the world switches to electric cars over a short period. New battery tech, that works without Cobalt, for instance, seems to be at least 10 years out. Wikipedia has this to say about the carbon footprint of electric car production:
Several reports have found that hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars generate more carbon emissions during their production than current conventional vehicles. Study of electric car production in Malaysia estimated a compact electric car production release 5,791 kg CO2 per unit against conventional vehicles 4,166 kg CO2,[46] but still have a lower overall carbon footprint over the full life cycle. The initial higher carbon footprint is due mainly to battery production.[5] As an example, the Ricardo study estimated that 43% of production emissions for a mid-size electric car are from the battery production.[47] link

So basically, there is environmental cost associated with the manufacturing of cars, and maybe a higher environmental cost associated with manufacturing electric cars. This cost, however, does not take into account battery recycling, which is in the upstart phase. As battery recycling percentage goes up, environmental manufacturing costs will drop significantly, as most of the environmental cost comes from battery production.

9. Making Faroe Islands 100 reliant on renewable energy will destroy wast amounts of local wildlife
-see reply below.

10. Scientists were predicting an Ice Age in the 70s, why should we believe them now?
"The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming." link


anyhow - that's all I have right now. Hoping for a productive discussion!


You want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?

Edited by Grizlas on 30-12-2018 22:14
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Norlander
RE: Is climate change real - Thomsen

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Admiral

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Posted on 29-12-2018 00:02
+1
More of this


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Vuzman
RE: Is climate change real - Thomsen

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Admiral

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Posted on 29-12-2018 21:12
+1


When I kill her, I'll have her
Die white girls, die white girls

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Grizlas
RE: Is climate change real - Thomsen

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Group: Administrator, Klikan, Regulars, Outsiders
Location: Denmark
Joined: 08.06.06
Posted on 30-12-2018 22:58
9. Making Faroe Islands 100 reliant on renewable energy will destroy wast amounts of local wildlife

The Faroe islands consumes roughly 3000 GWh a year. The energy source is predominately oil. About 10% of the energy comes from electricity production, of which about 40-50% is currently produced from other renewable sources of energy. link (PDF)



To reach the goal of 100% renewable electricity production in 2030, some expansions need to be made:



It will be necessary to dramatically increase the dam capacity of two water pumping installations:

Á tveimum av verandi lokalitetum verður roknað við, at virksemið verður nakað størri. Hetta fer at hava við sær, at neyðugt verður at brúka nakað meira av vatni og lendi til verandi goymslur, ið fara at verða útbygdar. Tó at hetta eru inntriv í náttúruna, so sýnist tað sum minni inntriv, enn tá heilt nýggj støð verða tikin til útbyggingar.


.. and to put up around 78 new windmills:

"Tvær frágreiðingar eru gjørdar, sum vísa á best egnaðu støðini í Føroyum til slíkar vindmyllulundir. Fyribils eru eyðmerkt sjey væl hóskandi støð. Um talan t.d. verður um 100 myllur býttar javnt út á hesi støðini, er talan um áleið 15 myllur á hvørjum staði. Eitt nú í Húsahaganum er talið 13. Tá talan er um støð, ið fyri tað mesta ikki liggja tætt upp at hvørjum øðrum, verður hetta ikki hildið at órógva náttúruna órímiliga nógv. Væntandi verður eisini munandi framleiðsla av el úr sólorku í næstu framtíð. Sólkyknur, sum skulu setast upp til hetta endamálið, fylla eisini nógv. Í mun til vindorku er tó her góður møguleiki at seta sólkyknur á húsatekjur. Tað slepst tó ikki undan at gera stórar
eindir eisini."


.. and solar power plants

97 MW av sólorku


round to 100 MW and say 10 m2 for 1 KW of solar power : 100 * 1000KW * 10m2 = 1 km2.

So about 20 soccer pitches of solar panels.

All in all, there will be some environmental price to pay for these expansions, but it will likely be small.


You want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?

Edited by Grizlas on 02-01-2019 01:38
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Laluu
RE: Is climate change real - Thomsen

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Veteran

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Posted on 17-06-2019 16:22
Ein áhugaverd og eitt sindur ræðandi grein um, hvat hendir við permafrost í t.d. Sibiria og Norðuramerika í løtuni.


http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190612-the-poisons-released-by-melting-arctic-ice


"The oldest and strongest emotion of mankind is fear, and the oldest and strongest kind of fear is fear of the unknown."
- H.P. Lovecraft

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